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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.